How Big Was Donald Trump’s Victory Over Kamala Harris?
In the 2024 United States presidential election, Donald Trump achieved a notable victory over Kamala Harris, marked by a clear lead in both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
Electoral College Outcome
Trump secured 312 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed for victory, while Harris obtained 226. This result was influenced by Trump’s wins in key swing states, including North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Popular Vote Totals
In the popular vote, Trump received 49.8% compared to Harris’s 48.3%, marking the smallest popular vote margin since 2000. This made Trump the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.
Demographic Shifts
Trump’s victory was bolstered by gains among minority voters, particularly Hispanic and Black men. He increased his share of the Black male vote from 12% to 20% and carried Hispanic men by nine points, 54% to 45%. Additionally, Trump made substantial gains among Hispanic voters, most notably in South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley.
Voter Turnout Trends
A decline in Democratic turnout contributed to Harris’s loss. Major urban centers saw significant decreases in votes for Harris compared to Biden’s 2020 performance, with New York City casting 573,000 fewer votes and Los Angeles County 620,000 fewer. Conversely, Trump managed to gain another 2.5 million votes, mostly coming out of urban centers, but still garnering a couple hundred to thousands in rural and exurban counties across the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, and Mountain regions.
Conclusion
Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory over Kamala Harris was marked by a substantial margin in the Electoral College and a lead in the popular vote. His campaign’s ability to attract a more diverse voter base and capitalize on shifts in voter turnout were pivotal in securing this outcome.
